Washington is weighing a rule that would block Chinese airlines from using Russian airspace to the U.S., a move meant to level the playing field for American carriers.
What’s Changing And Why It Matters
The U.S. Department of Transportation is considering a rule that would bar Chinese airlines from flying to and from the United States via Russian airspace. The proposal, first reported by Reuters, aims to erase what U.S. regulators call an unfair advantage. American carriers have steered clear of Russia since sanctions and reciprocal restrictions followed the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which means longer routes, higher fuel burn, and reduced aircraft utilization for U.S. airlines. Chinese carriers have been able to overfly Russia on many routes, saving time and money.
Under the draft order, passenger flights would be affected, while cargo-only services would not. The Department frames this as a competitive correction, not a shutdown of air links. Several major Chinese airlines could be impacted, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern, and Xiamen Airlines, if their routings traverse Russian territory.
The Current State Of US-China Flights
Capacity is still far from pre-pandemic levels. In February 2024, the DOT raised the cap on Chinese passenger flights to 50 weekly round trips, up from 35, in a step toward normalization. That cap remains in place. U.S. carriers were authorized similarly, but actual deployment has lagged demand and operational constraints. Reuters coverage lays out the numbers.
It is also true that not every China-US flight uses Russian airspace today. In recent approvals, US authorities have tied extra frequencies to routings that avoid Russia, which pushed some Chinese services onto longer, polar-skirting paths. The new DOT proposal would formalize a uniform rule across the board rather than manage it route by route.
At the onset of COVID, President Trump restricted flights between the countries on the advice of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in conjunction with the World Health Organization. This was due to public health concerns at the time, but following COVID’s travel limitations, traffic simply hasn’t rebounded to the same levels.
Beijing’s Response And The Bigger Trade Backdrop
Beijing is not thrilled. A Global Times write-up quotes officials warning that such a restriction would harm people-to-people exchange and civil aviation cooperation. The political temperature is already high. After China announced fresh curbs on rare earth exports on October 9, 2025, President Donald Trump threatened on October 10 to escalate with new tariffs and even export controls touching aviation. Reuters’ follow-up sketches out how quickly the dispute is bleeding into aerospace supply chains.
There is also the looming question of aircraft orders. Multiple outlets have reported that Chinese airlines are in talks for a very large Boeing purchase, potentially up to 500 jets, which would be the country’s first major Boeing order since 2017. If inked, that deal would be colored by any new US aviation restrictions and China’s industrial policy moves.
While the Trump Administration could be positioning the latest change as a genuine competition concern – which it is – banning Chinese airlines that use Russian airspace could also be a way to push for further trade policy. The White House has also pushed harder on the Russian side of the Ukrainian conflict as of late and this could be a way to utilize a third-party to escalate tensions. However, flights to China are at far lower levels than just six years ago, and using the transportation department to restrict travel from China would be fairly limited in scope. It can also simply fly the same route that American carriers take to neutralize the order altogether.
What Travelers And Airlines Should Expect Next
DOT has given Chinese carriers a short window to respond, and a final order could arrive as soon as November 2025. If implemented, expect schedule reshuffles on any affected routes. Flights that currently clip Siberia would need to detour, adding time and fuel burn. For US airlines, the rule would neutralize a key cost advantage enjoyed by rivals. For passengers, practical impacts will likely look like modestly longer flight times on some eastbound or westbound segments and possible retimings to protect connections.
Cargo is a different story. The DOT’s current framing leaves cargo-only operations outside the new restriction. That carve-out matters for freight rates and for integrators that rely on predictable polar corridors, even as passenger networks adjust. The Chinese Embassy in Washington will be busy drawing comparisons between cargo and passenger routes to restore the corridor.
Conclusion
This is a policy nudge with real-world consequences. Washington wants to pull Chinese carriers onto the same chessboard US airlines have been playing on since 2022. Beijing sees it as a political squeeze that undercuts aviation ties. The DOT’s proposal will not end US-China flying, but it could reshape who has the time and cost edge on long-haul routes across the Pacific. With trade tensions flaring and a potential mega-order for Boeing in the mix, the airspace above Russia has become more than a routing choice. It is now a pressure point in a much larger US-China negotiation.
